Is the war over? Markets think so, heres why | The Business | ABC NEWS

The Australian share market has had its best day since the so-called TACO - Trump Always Chickens Out - moment over Donald Trump's tariffs a year ago.
Today's rally appears to be another TACO moment, after the US President changed course from threatening to destroy Iran to agreeing to a two-week ceasefire on the condition Tehran re-opens the Strait of Hormuz.
Asian markets rallied on the news of the ceasefire. Lead portfolio manager with Wilson Asset Management, Matthew Haupt says the rally will likely run for the next few days on the ASX. Longer-term, he says markets think this ceasefire signals the war is coming to an end.
"Ultimately, we think Trump does want an end to this conflict because it's going to hurt his midterms and also the economy of the US," he says.
"So expect some sort of resolution, it doesn't have to be perfect, but expect a resolution after this two-week period."
Mr Haupt says investors hadn't really reacted to Trump's threats in the days leading up to it.
"The one thing we did know was Trump wanted an out of this conflict. He got into the conflict, but he had guardrails, they were the equity markets, oil price and the interest rates on bonds," he says. "So we were of the belief he would back out of this because he doesn't want a drawn out conflict. The language got quite aggressive near the end there, but the market was looking through this because we've seen it many, many times where he hits those guardrails, then backs out very, very quickly."
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