How Prediction Markets Turned the World Into a Casino

Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are booming. The platforms let users effectively wager on everything, from the mundane (Federal Reserve rate cuts and gasoline prices) to the more tectonic (confirmation aliens exist or the return of Jesus Christ).

They’ve seen massive growth during President Donald Trump’s second term, as the administration takes a much friendlier view on an industry critics say builds in the use of insider information. The administration has joined the companies in pushing back on state efforts to regulate them.

But the surge in customers also has spurred broader criticism over bets on conflicts and violence, including the US attack on Venezuela and the US-Israel war with Iran war. Here’s how the prediction markets became so popular and controversial, and what the consequences may be.

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Read more from Bloomberg on prediction markets on Bloomberg.com and here:
Wanna Bet? How Polymarket and Kalshi Are Gamifying Truth
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2026-prediction-markets-polymarket-kalshi/

0:00 Introduction
2:24 How they work
3:30 Sports betting
5:15 Politics & Trump
7:03 Insider trading
9:37 Prediction market trader
11:07 What next

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